[Forensics] Frequency and size of redemptions (KAU)

Yesterday, we confirmed a linux one-liner can check cumulative redemptions up to a given date and time.

Let's explore the data in slightly more detail.

The usual preliminaries:

chmod +x KAU-set-main-account-symbols.sh 
linux> . ./KAU-set-main-account-symbols.sh 
linux> echo $KAU_extract 
../dat/kau-stellar-export-2023-06-17-T01:32:07-UTC.csv

linux> sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {sum_11 += $11} END {printf "%-10.2f\n",  sum_11 }'
49000784.01

KAU uses Field
11
instead of Field
15
for KAG file

Not very interesting but I had to mention it again.

Count

linux> sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | wc -l
3051

3051 redemption events
in 4 years

Do the usual arithmetic.
In a systematic way always.

first=`sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | head -1 | cut -f1`
last=`sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | tail -1 | cut -f1`
echo $first
echo $last 

linux> first=`sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | head -1 | cut -f1`
last=`sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | tail -1 | cut -f1`
echo $first
echo $last 
2019-08-29T04:24:40Z
2023-06-16T17:37:11Z

echo $((($(date '+%s' -d "$last") - $(date '+%s' -d "$first")) / (24 * 60 * 60)))
linux> echo $((($(date '+%s' -d "$last") - $(date '+%s' -d "$first")) / (24 * 60 * 60)))
1387

Same time-span as for KAG previously
6.5 times higher frequency however

bc <<< "scale=2; 3051 / 464"
linux> bc <<< "scale=2; 3051 / 464"
6.57
units -o "%4.2f" -t "1387 days" year
bc <<< "scale=2; 1387 / 3051"
linux> units -o "%4.2f" -t "1387 days" year
bc <<< "scale=2; 1387 / 3051"
3.80
.45

2 redemption events a day on average:

linux> qalc "1 / 0.45"
1 / 0.45 ≈ 2.222222222

The redemption chunks are smaller (in units) and more frequent (than for KAG done in a previous thread)

Reminder for the casual reader. In theory:

1000 KAU = 1000 g Au
1000 KAG = 1000 ozt Ag

A redemption should *release* physical metal from the system and generate fiat (cash) liquidity.
Approximate current spot market values of those chunks above:

linux> units -t "1000 XAU (g/ozt)" USD
62970.131
linux> units -t "1000 ozt XAG (1/ozt)" USD
23900

Look at last 20 records:

linux> sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | tail -20
2023-05-30T17:35:25Z       4000.00    bd28c77ca58bb4d54500390ecec33bcbee575875c934ca81c75881cb5c8fce14
2023-05-30T17:38:56Z       3900.00    90d099b518aa6f288c34933755540a8aa518c143e07713aa4ae1ae03a266184a
2023-05-30T17:41:44Z       3800.00    74ec218a9ebe779bd29244b23a405079f0535df7498087bf7dcbc5a774c48b5d
2023-05-30T17:45:23Z       3800.00    a2bdef4da67ddc0544b6f5f290170fd86a62b2c4503869613da22c6ffe912b98
2023-05-30T17:48:15Z       3600.00    3f777cec9088f19c350fce4afb5c29adc8eb191531c9dcfd5f5b510c1eb15dcf
2023-05-30T17:50:59Z       3600.00    dc5a87931a57591d43ec77e02a28f8d6b979740a7725ef3cf149fd6d79a732c5
2023-05-30T17:54:04Z       3500.00    5762181c66e35d17685047114b98ec6b791bb4ee55eb06d1345e97f30bf55aae
2023-05-30T17:57:43Z       3400.00    97b4c2c27cb5e9495178c4d08c3be8e107b37b657f851a9cffb43266b778a903
2023-05-30T17:59:58Z       3400.00    dbfadf9bc44caded5b0153f8141fa68b3d5e8a7dcfe4e51a5540392c09864071
2023-05-30T18:02:45Z       3200.00    19e85d0478d4c22a7bbfa06002802354f378025b98b9e1c80099862047d25621
2023-05-30T18:05:10Z       3200.00    e4f6675de7fd5cc4aa880afdb291b2cbbb500ceff00f6b362c5069edc0507d7d
2023-05-30T18:07:58Z       3200.00    f66238b08100a1fc03e115f9784533958031a90e425de4cdcca45623190b49f6
2023-06-01T03:17:26Z       3000.00    db2f1d530fe2461bf756a786651b477a943fdec2bdb7dc57e2e7a2a23667f8c4
2023-06-08T08:13:08Z       3200.00    5b62184600d0fd3f3a1936de81334c7b442de7bec5de5a4b5bcc1a5940d120bb
2023-06-13T09:14:17Z       2500.00    27a55dc95b222689ceb2071874c449a1f703cc06183bee66fd80c22a75646260
2023-06-14T02:10:33Z       3000.00    12930da691f7ffed79bb9693a036134661f50613376740318fecd1ba473e45ce
2023-06-14T15:27:08Z       1600.00    b0274b0d3259c42214ce82d333b762b8f910c788fffb0988e88968b98e7afd40
2023-06-15T17:35:09Z       1800.00    2e5092ad06fd23ff6e245d921dc39366026ea51822bae6a1613f8da69c2beac8
2023-06-16T01:49:26Z       2200.00    ac5a8632f087fd2867612a50990c1ebd9837ebc9d7c1e6e90d3daa4c3747c6ba
2023-06-16T17:37:11Z       1600.00    754234a31e329135bbdc5227659a8f0604a35ae6d888cf9ade7b5900cbc4d121

Focus on earlier records for fun (I found these by inspection on the whole set)
Focus on May 3 2023 to be precise.

This date had 15 redemptions within 1 hour. Adding up to 16+ kg Au equivalent.
Au

sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | grep "^2023-05-03"

linux> sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | grep "^2023-05-03"
2023-05-03T11:18:17Z       1200.00    c850e2fa5bc45dbeeb9a8f330a13844cc653fa1ec2d795d6206cea9f797dba2a
2023-05-03T11:20:41Z       1200.00    5188fc7a6dbdfa85e2db1a8cf7e3f0368356264dc31bd327123230350b5f62a9
2023-05-03T11:23:59Z       1200.00    19fdd27024bac958b703566c238c11aa9f7cb93a53b9f8a7ab9c4e4b4cd2b6f6
2023-05-03T11:27:58Z       1200.00    843fd3f6c1c8395105e0a004f505c8e329fa18f3654a330d7a7fbfaa79466fe3
2023-05-03T11:30:38Z       1200.00    80a0286e0b3ffbe58675135bb420b89804357935c14bf12de7fecd7b585d7732
2023-05-03T11:33:21Z       1200.00    e1559b309c0006bded2f775006a817b34fb8bbb8c26dbf0cb478e62a3d6b1ce0
2023-05-03T11:36:53Z       1000.00    6f51d9c610c8b4fe99932cf4ba43cdf2c7e156ab4f110f44cc8cd1e7f0760f86
2023-05-03T11:40:32Z       1100.00    cf4d5f572b7e4303780802fde1c42cd002e5a6cfd8b678803465f6d6835f16ff
2023-05-03T11:43:51Z       1000.00    5fc8e09cfb92a915316758fff43fa38d2f26255bf87b07f355c052c38b4272f1
2023-05-03T11:48:12Z       1100.00    dc8374def89b5002d61fba71f638f15a1b53472c1d614d2fb1a135bf56d785ba
2023-05-03T11:51:55Z       1000.00    b41850024f18d423917a2348940bc0b0c59fccf398951a559c93f5dc7bf1e107
2023-05-03T11:55:57Z       1100.00    6932e23128d423900c3cd675c17d30f1e7745717fd825a982158ba3986cbb7ee
2023-05-03T11:58:58Z       1000.00    004ceced87b3a351594f14ebfa8d9ca8d4fc02c37c0296d118e0c4a1c1cf5c73
2023-05-03T12:03:16Z       1100.00    3c15b7084e9e1c3ebb15049379dcfecb5f0c6ebd7b0a1a23f5b0086b2e495ed9
2023-05-03T12:09:11Z       1000.00    71229103c8a6533e50d4479caeb9986b3a641dde793d64c49aff38dbbe3efacf
2023-05-03T15:21:26Z        800.00    51d9dee3d075de01121918b78dd039a8d1fc85031decd5703e5224581f5538a5
2023-05-03T20:23:32Z       6500.00    950615a851b500b57ce5d12bebfc3912414d30192ea9da0e4c94070c8bbe8ae9
2023-05-03T22:07:58Z       1400.00    bcb60f7515d0a4d2217babcb50d614a5d73323b2a7a9939d4170d17ba344ca28
linux> sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | grep "^2023-05-03" | wc -l
18

18 redemption events in 1 day
15 within 1 hour

linux> sed '1d' $KAU_extract | sed 's/\"//g' | awk -F, -v x=$KAU_HotWalletAccount -v y=$KAU_EmissionAccount '( ($4=="payment") && (($9==x) && ($10==y)) ) {printf "%s\t%10.2f\t%s\n", $6, $11, $7}' | sort -k1 | grep "^2023-05-03" | sed -n '1,15p' | cut -f2 | paste -d+ -s | bc -l
16600.00

16.6 kg in 1 hour
To check out the 15th record in he set listed above in Explorer GUI:
To check via Explorer GUI:
Here you go

cheat-sheet:

linux> set | grep KAU | grep 'Emiss\|Hot'
KAU_EmissionAccount=GDIENNQ3BXCTB74ZYCQAGXCY7KTGFBZGHRMUVF3ZLIW6SMAZIGX2JCCS
KAU_HotWalletAccount=GBUBOKEFUNF4ZZQA7QJCGYF54U4N2T5VV2QAN7RWQCVS75OOI5KSVCZS

OK. That was a bit boring but I hadn't seen this type of data-based analysis anywhere else in the Kinesis chatter sphere before. So I just had to do it. Init?

 

[ZürichGnome]

A quick revisit...

Both for KAG and KAU in the same post.

A Kinesis beginner may think that a payment transaction in
https://explorer.kinesis.money/
represents a user buying metal/ digital tokens.

In many cases those payments are redemptions (system events).

To identify those again, see my latest at github.


At any rate this is a useful exercise in practising technique.

One day a more competent programmer can rewrite this properly in go lang, python or whatever makes more sense.

I'm just doing the reconnoitering, making full use of open source software.



I myself am still a Kinesis relative beginner. I have ZERO intuitive grasp for the actual blockchain side of matters (Stellar / Horizon).

I may exude some kind of Air of Authority but that's only because I have been banging away at linux for some years now. Caveat lector

For non-techies, this can be a problem over time because some may not dare to criticise or be somehow terrified at the sight of data. Eww, all those screens of black and white...................... Techies on the other hand should be well used to the potential drubbing of a code review. Constructive criticism goes hand in hand with a techie's job. It is completely necessary in a functional system.


TL;DR
Back to the subject of redemptions:

compared to 10 days ago,
3 extra redemption events on KAG side
52 extra redemption events on KAU side

Over the full 4 years of the system, there have been about 6 times more redemption events on the KAU side compared to KAG ( 3103 v 467 ) =~= 3000 / 500 = 6

 

[Zuestro]

Those redemptions should come from minting process rigth?
Or could it come for redemptions to get phosical?

 

[ZürichGnome]

Those redemptions should come from minting process rigth?

That depends on the data.

How much minting took place over the period.
Have a look at the extensive notes (700 lines+) I just made to answer your question at github

I extracted all the data for the period for KAG and KAU both on the minting side and on the redemption side.
Before looking at the data, you cannot draw any conclusions.
This is a very good exercise in critical thinking/ data munging/ data wrangling.

Look at the minting data and draw your own conclusions:

77364 KAG minted
167088 KAU minted

39000 KAG redeemed
154100 KAU redeemed

over the last 41 days

I made a mistake:
I said 10 days
it's more like 41 days

I may have made other mistakes. Of course

Or could it come for redemptions to get phosical?

Partly perhaps.

I do not know how to distinguish:

- Physical Redemption
- redemption to balance the books (1:1 physical to digital)

I just observe a flow between H and E of Type1 (payment)

I don't think we can tell from the CSV extract file from Watcher.